I LOVE IT! Great analysis of how meteorologists break down 90-day forecasting. However! Where this culturally intersects with media coverage and buyer behaviour is what interests me, as someone actively involved in the retail industry. Let's face it, no other sport gets media attention like skiing does when it comes to weather. Last winter's dire predictions of El Nino (along with rising interest rates and a downturn in housing prices) meant that a LOT of people held off on buying ski gear and booking vacations. And it proved right! The front part of the season was an utter disaster for western resorts. My first day of skiing on a Senior's Pass at Grouse Mountain? February 26th. From that day until pretty much the end of April, it was indeed Game On. The problem is... the winter sports industry is incredibly front-loaded. For every person who agonizes over what touring binding to buy, there are two or three newcomers to the sport who jump in with both feet and just say 'fuck it, we'll get what we get.' This year? So far, so good. I've been around enough to know that the chances of a lousy start (which I'd define as 'NOT having 75 percent of your skiable terrain - including double-black diamond expert chutes - open by January 15th) are about one in four. If you live in the Rockies, well, 'that's life' there are winters when off piste chutes are NEVER skiable; but in those cases it's due to extreme cold and high pressure systems, not because it's too warm.
Interesting perspective Steve. It seems bookings at Whistler are way down again this year, and I heard the CAA has cancelled a lot of courses: peops not signing up. The reasons? I dunno. Hang-over from last year? The poor economy? Fear of changing statistics of weather?
Regarding the 'cause' of last season's poor start... prior to the Olympics, Alex Cannon from EC tried to establish when the effect of El Nino can be detected at Vancouver via statistical analysis. Presuming his methodology was sound, he found no effect on temperature until the first week of January. (forget about precip: too variable, nearly impossible).That suggests it's not clear what caused the crappy Nov-Dec of 2023. After Jan 1, blame it on El Nino!!!
Gotta love that front loading. Often, like last year, the best skiing is in march or april when it's way not crowded since so many think theres more fun to be had golfing, biking etc. May it long continue.
When I worked for Big White, it was 'golf and gardening' that sent local participation off a cliff. However, the typical skier probably had 30 odd days in by that point, so they didn't care.
I knew that.
I’d hope so, Chris. You are a meteorologist, right?!
Rumour has it.
"....she aint got your love anymore..."
😉
I LOVE IT! Great analysis of how meteorologists break down 90-day forecasting. However! Where this culturally intersects with media coverage and buyer behaviour is what interests me, as someone actively involved in the retail industry. Let's face it, no other sport gets media attention like skiing does when it comes to weather. Last winter's dire predictions of El Nino (along with rising interest rates and a downturn in housing prices) meant that a LOT of people held off on buying ski gear and booking vacations. And it proved right! The front part of the season was an utter disaster for western resorts. My first day of skiing on a Senior's Pass at Grouse Mountain? February 26th. From that day until pretty much the end of April, it was indeed Game On. The problem is... the winter sports industry is incredibly front-loaded. For every person who agonizes over what touring binding to buy, there are two or three newcomers to the sport who jump in with both feet and just say 'fuck it, we'll get what we get.' This year? So far, so good. I've been around enough to know that the chances of a lousy start (which I'd define as 'NOT having 75 percent of your skiable terrain - including double-black diamond expert chutes - open by January 15th) are about one in four. If you live in the Rockies, well, 'that's life' there are winters when off piste chutes are NEVER skiable; but in those cases it's due to extreme cold and high pressure systems, not because it's too warm.
Interesting perspective Steve. It seems bookings at Whistler are way down again this year, and I heard the CAA has cancelled a lot of courses: peops not signing up. The reasons? I dunno. Hang-over from last year? The poor economy? Fear of changing statistics of weather?
Regarding the 'cause' of last season's poor start... prior to the Olympics, Alex Cannon from EC tried to establish when the effect of El Nino can be detected at Vancouver via statistical analysis. Presuming his methodology was sound, he found no effect on temperature until the first week of January. (forget about precip: too variable, nearly impossible).That suggests it's not clear what caused the crappy Nov-Dec of 2023. After Jan 1, blame it on El Nino!!!
The reset is on!! The industry needs a break.
a break from....?
More powder for the hounds.
Roger Dodger. Count me in!!!
Gotta love that front loading. Often, like last year, the best skiing is in march or april when it's way not crowded since so many think theres more fun to be had golfing, biking etc. May it long continue.
When I worked for Big White, it was 'golf and gardening' that sent local participation off a cliff. However, the typical skier probably had 30 odd days in by that point, so they didn't care.